挪威 vs 法国 - Quant Input Report

• Titan007 ID: 2906968
• Leisu ID: 4460928
• Competition/time: 世界杯 小组赛 I组 第3轮 / 2026-06-27 03:00
• Weather: Titan 场地：波士顿球场天气：多云温度：23℃～24℃; Leisu 天气：阴 温度：24°C 风速3.7m/s 气压：763mmHg 湿度：71%

Facts

• Europe odds average: 4.698/4.476/1.643 from 181 parsed rows
• Asian line row: 0.99 受让半球/一球 0.85 1.06 受让半球/一球 0.78 详 统 主 客 同
• Total-goals row: 1.01 2.5 0.79 0.78 3 1.02 详 统 主 客 同
• Corner row: 澳* 0.88 9.5 0.88 0.88 9 0.88 详
• Titan recent: {"homeFor":2.6,"awayFor":2.7,"homeAgainst":1,"awayAgainst":0.9,"homeCorners":5.4,"awayCorners":6.4,"homePossession":53.8,"awayPossession":64.3}
• Leisu news: 世界杯前瞻：法国主帅德尚因故缺席，挪威队史从未头名出线

Leisu shujufenxi supplement

• 挪威: 雷速页面未暴露完整近期比分，需人工核对。
• 法国: 雷速页面未暴露完整近期比分，需人工核对。

Quant

• De-margin fair probs: home 20.4%, draw 21.4%, away 58.2%; margin 4.49%
• Lambda: home 1.75, away 1.85; method: lambda_home=(home GF10 + away GA10)/2; lambda_away=(away GF10 + home GA10)/2
• Poisson 1X2: home 37%, draw 21.9%, away 41.1%
• Score top: 1:1(8.8%), 1:2(8.2%), 2:1(7.7%), 2:2(7.2%), 0:1(5.1%), 1:3(5%)
• Totals: over1.5 87.4%, over2.5 69.7%, over3.5 48.5%
• Asian -1: win by 2+ 19%, push by 1 18%, lose 63%

Value checks

| Item | Model | Market implied | Edge | EV | Tier |

|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|

| Home win | 37% | 21.3% | 15.7% | 0.738 | high value |

| Draw | 21.9% | 22.3% | -0.4% | -0.02 | no edge |

| Away win | 41.1% | 60.9% | -19.8% | -0.325 | no edge |

Cross-source conflicts for AI

• Belgium recent attack is very strong, but Leisu H2H is not one-sided.
• Asian market moved toward Belgium -1, but total-goals market moved down from 2.75 to 2.5.
• Model likes home win more than market, but -1 has meaningful push/lose risk.